football outsiders projections

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Date: 12/12/2022

Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? "A book that any self-respecting NFL fan needs to purchase." -- Bill Simmons, The Ringer.com Indianapolis The Colts get their due when we put up the subjective projections tomorrow. Watson isn't good enough to get 11 Brisset games up to Mayfields level I guess. 1) It's not too late to get a copy of Football Outsiders Almanac 2022, nearly 6,000 words (plus a bunch of tables!) 8. The Bills are projected in the top five for offense, defense, and special teams in these new projections, updated from the season forecasts in Football Outsiders Almanac 2022. Then again, I wouldn't want to bet against them, in part because it might make Chris Harris Jr. angry on Twitter. The value of projections is the interesting ones, we don't need DVOA to tell us KC, BUF, GB and TB will be pretty good/. 5. Ian O'Connor and Vince Verhei are to review the most impactful games and coaching decisions from the past weekend of football. Whatever, your projection is losing its mind on offense because of a bunch of unknowns on the OLine and the QB. | Two Old Bloggers. Per Aaron Schatz, Football Outsiders' founder, the projection system was built using the seasons from 2003 through 2014. 2. When someone points out that Minnesota ranks 20th in Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), 18th in offensive EPA per drive (per TruMedia) and 17th in defensive EPA per . Founder of Football Outsiders Projected division champions are colored in light yellow and projected wild-card teams are colored in light purple. They seem to have a wider-than-average range of possible outcomes for this season, which I would have though equated to a more middling projected DVOA. NFL Week 13 - Welcome to the Football Outsiders Coach Rankings show for NFL Week 13!Ian O'Connor and Vince Verhei are to review the most impactful games and coaching decisions from the past weekend of football. You can find a detailed breakdown of our projection methodology at the bottom of the article. Washington's third-down defense last year was particularly atrocious and although I'm somewhat worried by the fact that this continued throughout the preseason, it's at least typically an area that would particularly be expected to drive reversion toward the mean. Remember that some of the teams at the bottom of our projections are going to surprise and make the playoffs. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/scramble-ball/2022/nfc-east-overunders-meeting-washington-commanders. Offensive projections also incorporate a separate projection for the starting quarterback done independent of the team. USC quarterback Williams wins Heisman Trophy, Sources: Senga, Mets agree on 5-year, $75M deal, Blachowicz, Ankalaev leave title vacant in draw, Warriors relish 'important win' vs. NBA-best Celts, England's Kane: 'Have to live' with missed pen, Crawford stops Avanesyan with big right in sixth, Sources: Saints, coaches, player fined $500K+, Coach Prime lands 1st ESPN 300 recruit for Buffs, UFC 282 takeaways: Blachowicz-Ankalaev leaves 205-pound title picture in a lurch, Caleb Williams' Heisman victory sparks reactions across Twitter, Raul Rosas Jr. becomes youngest UFC fighter to win in their debut, What to know for NFL Week 14: Score picks, bold predictions, fantasy tips, key stats for every game. They started the season slow, had a very strong middle, and then faltered at the end. Dallas Cowboys. I was initially stunned that the Titans were projected as the 29th ranked team. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? But it's still more likely that the Bucs will just stay mediocre. Between going to a new coach and system I would expect some difficulties but I can't think of a good comp. Indianapolis Colts: 7-9 (6.6 mean wins; SOS: 28) The Titans ranked 15th in our DVOA ratings last season, best in the AFC South, and they've made some strong free-agent additions on defense. Sigh. 1. I would have expected subjective projections to account for that, but not DVOA. 11. (You'll find last year's final ratings here.) and Now Duane Brown might go on IR. Green Bay Packers: 10-6 (9.8 mean wins; SOS: 12) On defense, perhaps were giving too much credit for players coming back from injuries. 1 special teams projection. Also note that stat projections naturally consider a wide range of possibilities. Tampa Bay At least one of the AFC South teams will climb up and be better than this. Obviously, the NFL is going to have teams that are 11-6 or better, and it is going to have teams that are 6-11 or worse. Pittsburgh Steelers: 13-3 (13.1 mean wins; SOS: 27) Although many scouts underrated Taylor, BackCAST -- Football Outsiders' system for projecting running backs -- identified Taylor as a potential star. And their schedule comes out easier than the other NFC West teams. 2) Bryan Knowles and Cale Clinton broke down the Eagles in their over/under picks a few weeks ago. Hell, he was hurt for a chunk of 1993, too. The Bears will have a better defense and get closer to .500, thanks to defensive back additions in free agency and returning injured players, including Kyle Fuller and Lamarr Houston. 2. How does this compare to the rankings projected in the Football Outsiders Almanac 2013? Fading Josh Allen is always a scary proposition, but this under has a lot of value. NFL Underdogs: NFL Picks, and Predictions Week 14. There's no particular reason for it. That doesn't explain the Giantswell, I guess Giants and Titans are basicly the same thing. I suppose it may get less interesting now that we are past covid (Mike Glennon getting starts! The DVOA ratings that appear on the website during the season are based on the actual play-by-play that happens during the season, with no future projection whatsoever. The Defense finally looked good. 1, Week 9 DVOA Preview: The Eagles Have Landed, ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). He writes regularly for ESPN.com and ESPN the Magazine, and has done custom research for a number of NFL teams. The underdog, Liquid, is currently priced at +131 moneyline odds. Editor's Picks. "A book that any self-respecting NFL fan needs to purchase." -- Bill Simmons, The Ringer.com The talent on the offense is ok; but a run heavy team is never an offense you want to bet on. Not only is that tough to square when losing someone as sharp as Zimmer, but also when considering first-year defensive coordinators, including veterans of the job, tend to not elevate their unit in the first season. 1. 15. Sorry to hear it's no longer feasible, but thanks for the great run! I'm surprised it's so down on Indy. Let's take a look. Cleveland continues to rebuild, but at least the defense should be better with a full season from Jamie Collins and the return of Desmond Bryant and Nate Orchard from injury. Raiders vs Rams picks and predictions. On today's show, the guys will grade both 2022 interim head coaches (Jeff Saturday and Steve Wilks), discuss the Cincinnati Bengals turnaround, the . BAL being back and some teams making the playoffs that didn't last year(MIN,NO) (The Raiders taking the last playoff spot from NE is narratively convenient). Don't worry -- the tone ain't going nowhere! The NFC East also draws the two West divisions, which means facing many of the league's top defenses. ), (Yes, they got steamrolled by the Bills, but they still had a reasonable WDVOA after that.). It was all cold comfort. Brady missed an entire year and was fine. Indy looked like by far the best team(although it had some rather worrying regular season hiccups). Breakdowns on the top 50 college football teams and full win-loss projections for all 131 Division I-A (FBS) teams. Our system starts by considering the team's DVOA over the past three seasons and, on offense, a separate projection for the starting quarterback. I'm really surprised that the Ravens are ranked at 2. Washington On the other hand, the offensive projection is driven by the quarterback, and Ryan Tannehill has finished 24th and 27th in QBR over the past two seasons. For a decade, Football Outsiders has been using advanced analytics to measure and predict team performance. The projection here seems reasonable but it's a weird one. I agree the Colts offense seems particularly low. In reply to I was initially stunned that by theslothook. I could give examples from my Jets fandom, but I don't want to belabor the point too much. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Buffalo Bills Clear Favorites in 2022 DVOA Projections, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . NFL betting odds, picks, tips: Bengals solve Browns; Jets sweep Bills? Lock is and Smith is not. Log in Projected Point Difference noted with Green/Yellow/Red The obvious one to question for me is Cleveland. Then all the wierd coaching staff fluctuations with the only real counter being "Darth Hoodie knows what he's doing" and.you get a team that's hard to figure out. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Philadelphia Eagles: 8-8 (7.6 mean wins; SOS: 5) England exit another World Cup with same question: Who's the orchestrator? Taylor had the best BackCAST projection of all . (halfway IIRC), In reply to NE had such a wacky by KnotMe. The Ravens' season-long DVOA was-2.7% (19th), while the Bengals' was -0.1% (17th). Creator of DVOA andDYAR Bills-Patriots NFL Player Props Josh Allen Under 266.5 Passing Yards. So I don't mind saying that our projection system seems far too optimistic about a rebound performance from the 38-year-old Carson Palmer. I could easily see a 9-8 division win happening again for either Philly or Washington. 1 pick listed below (and listed on the playoff odds report page) do not incorporate traded picks. On December 14, 2022, we have the CS:GO matchup of Liquid vs. Outsiders.We'll be discussing the top esports betting picks and predictions in this article. Off topic, I know, but where is Loser League? Buffalo Bills: 7-9 (6.9 mean wins; SOS: 23) I had Manning's same expression when he saw Mike Vanderjagt miss the field goal; in a game that frankly the Colts had been outplayed the entire night and required several miracles to happen(an overturned interception, the Bettis clock sealing fumble). And similarly, the defense lacks the premium pass rusher or ace corner. Obviously on a small sample size butfeels like rust is just an excuse fans use when they don't have off 5/6 days (we know everyone hates Thursday games because it's not enough rustI mean rest). 13. Football Outsiders takes a look at which second-year quarterback could improve the most in 2020. video Previewing Bills' 2022 floor and ceiling scenarios See what changes the Buffalo Bills made. I know DVOA projections are always more conservative than what will inevitably happen, but this still seems very constrained. Our Denver projection might be a surprise, but a full turnover of the coaching staff often presages a drop for winning teams. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. Its not devoid of talent. I've been reading you guys about as long as youve been around. The difference in actual DVOA is marginal -- I certainly wouldn't say the offense carried them to victories -- but I do think it's fair to say that last year's defense was every bit as bad as the offense.. Last year, it stood out because of its optimism regarding the Cardinals, projecting the team to win 8.1 games when most others expected less. Early 2017 NFL projections: NFC East repeat in Big D? Each time it plays through the season, it adds 1.5% to the DVOA of every winner and subtracts 1.5% from the DVOA of every loser before moving on to the next week's games. 4. Meanwhile, the Denver offense drops 0.2% having gained Wilson? The Chiefs slide as a result of their bungle in the jungle, the Cowboys slip past the Eagles in the night, and much more. Regarding the entire division: even though the mean projection has the division taking up spots 13-16 in the AFC, the reality is that it is very unlikely that the season will end that way. Bosa is now 2 years removed from the ACL tear and Fred Warner is going into year 2 of a new defensive system. 14. By AGL, the Ravens' injury impacts were 3x worse than the Bengals'. 4. We also expect Cincinnati to bounce back on both sides of the ball, and the Bengals get eight home games again after losing one to London in 2016. 23rd since 2017. Football Outsiders will be streamingLIVEevery weekday at during the NFL season. Use promo code WRITERS to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip the team of writers. Use promo code WRITERS to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip the team of writers. That first-place finish doesn't do the Texans any schedule favors, because there's a big difference between playing the Patriots and playing the other AFC East teams. 10. Some of it is having a new quarterback. San Francisco 49ers: 5-11 (5.2 mean wins; SOS: 3). As Aaron mentioned, losing Hilton and Doyle hurts even if both were basically on the downslope of their careers. Some of it is a little regression to past performance (2019-2020). Here's what the 2017 AFC playoff picture would look like according to our early projections. Then we look at a number of other variables which suggest when a team will be better or worse than would otherwise be expected due to standard regression towards the mean. As a writer who uses stats to analyze a sport that's tough to analyze with stats, I try to follow two rules: Run the numbers unadulterated and don't be a slave to them. 1. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Interim HC Grades, Harbaugh Collapses? Atlanta Falcons: 9-7 (8.6 mean wins; SOS: 17) From 1999 to 2008, a dozen different teams turned things around and went 11-5 or better after a season in which they were 5-11 or worse. AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, (select parishes), MD, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OR, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY, CA-ONT only.Eligibility restrictions apply. NE had such a wacky offseason (mostly bad it looks like), they are really hard to project. And it once again projects to have the worst defense in the league. 1 plus Jets on the rise, September vs. October performance, and great offensive debacles of DVOA history. Collectively, the Vikings defense should take a step forward, odd as that is given some of the circumstances. Cleveland, 1. At one point, they were missing nineplayers (including all expected starters) from their secondary. 4. Why is the Giants defense projected to be worst in the league? . 1) to the easiest (New England). Maybe, maybe not. I actually played LL before taking up any other FF, and I quit FF a few years back, but still enjoyed LL tremendously. On one hand, FO. Without trying to figure out what's up with the offense, I'm curious about the defense. by Aaron Brooks G. Brian Fremeau of Football Outsiders posted his projections on ESPN Insider at the end of Travis Haney's article the other day. I know that Wentz's reputation is in the toilet, But his season-long metrics were far better than heineke's and much better than his current reputation suggests. Like Cleveland, there's a good chance San Francisco will improve over last season but very little chance the 49ers will improve to 8-8 or better. They just released an updated win projection, and the models haven't gotten any better. This year, we have two. 14. Said another way I can buy them being outside of the top 10 on defense, but it'd take an utter disaster for them to be last in the league on offense. Make sure to getsigned up for FO+! Eleven of the 12 teams that would make the playoffs based on mean projections are teams that . Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? Washington will have to weather the loss of two starting receivers and an offensive coordinator, but the Redskins are still more likely to be an average team than a bad one. Tampa Bay declined on offense, as noted above, because of the injuries to Ryan Jensen and Aaron Stinnie. For those new to our website, you can find an explanation of DVOA here. The smaller simulation comes out with a wider range of outcomes than the more complicated simulation we do for the book. And we'll hit all of the usual yearly Scramble topics, just a day later and with one guy yelling at himself rather than two guys yelling at each other. Find out what gives in our Week 12 DVOA preview. In the book, Arizona had the hardest projected schedule in the league. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. Reading the book and seeing who is in the secondary, I cant fathom Pitt ending the season with a top five defense let alone number one. Will there be a Loser League this season? Gambling problem? We're forecasting a lot of offensive regression from Atlanta, which went from 23rd in offensive DVOA in 2015 to first in 2016 and now has to adapt to a new offensive coordinator. Minnesota Vikings: 6-10 (6.4 mean wins; SOS: 8). We've tweaked the results slightly to get a more realistic spread of win-loss records, but nonetheless, the numbers published below don't mean that we expect the 2017 season to end with no team below 5-11. They didn't lose any starter or even backup (until preseason cuts) from last year, they added two vets in Ingram and Flowers and they have two young guys on the upswing in Holland and Phillips. The Niners forecast is the one that surprises me. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. including picks and predictions . That was enough to drop them into a projected last place in a very close AFC South where we have every team with an average projection below .500. The 49ers will be starting a rookie fourth-round pick at right guard (Spencer Burford), a second-year player with very little game experience at left guard (Aaron Banks), and a journeyman center with only three NFL starts (Jake Brendel) instead of Alex Mack. In reply to Off topic, I know, but where by Calipanther. Player Pos Team Opponent Dome Fantasy Points Overall Rank Position Rank Base Points Venue Points Weather Points Opponent Points; Josh Allen: QB: BUF: vs NYJ: 24.2 "A book that any self-respecting NFL fan needs to purchase." -- Bill Simmons, The Ringer.com Kinda funny that CLE offence projection went down although it makes sense. Now that's not meant to sound facetious. Losing Eberflus could be a huge; especially since they went with Gus Bradley at defensive coordinator. Kirk Cousins probably is the player in the NFL who forces the biggest disagreements between stats people and film people, but the dude is consistently like the 10th best quarterback in the league, statistically. Every team that has ever hired Phillips as a head coach or defensive coordinator saw its defensive DVOA improve, including the Broncos, who went from fourth in the league in 2014 to one of the greatest defenses ever in 2015. In reply to Yeah, that makes sense! Admittedly don't know much about the rest of the roster. When they made that switch last year the 49ers went from below average on run defense to the clear best unit in the NFL. The numbers here are a forecast, with offense, defense, and special teams DVOA all projected separately using a system based on looking at trends for teams going back to 2009. A projection of ~16% for the best team seems low to me. Tennessee Titans: 8-8 (8.1 mean wins; SOS: 29) Note that there's a big difference between DVOA and projected DVOA. 4. On the other hand, the 49ers have had seesawing health the last six years or so, and this year is scheduled to be a downside year. Indeed. Now, again, without giving away the whole store. At that point, I wanted to abandon being a colts fan. Chicago Bears: 7-9 (7.0 mean wins; SOS: 13) The semifinals are set! Per Football Outsiders, the Rams were 19th in total offense and 28th in passing Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). There's an offensive line variable based on age and experience on the offensive line, so going from Becton to Duane Brown is a big change. The AFC is more difficult not because it has the best teams but because the NFC has the worst teams. Aaron Schatz in DVOA Analysis There's just way less uncertainty with them than with other teams. 9.8% DVOA last year, -5.6% this year, most of the difference seems to be on offence. Having locked in my odds, y'all are now invited to join in. Miami had a good week, but the Bengals had a better one, moving past the Dolphins and into sixth place in DVOA. I don't see many good reasons for them to finish outside of the top 10. Cuz lmao that's gonna look silly in a couple months. Here are early projections for every team. The Bengals aren't far behind - fifth in scoring - and are set to get star . 2. * 21+ (19+ CA-ONT) (18+ NH/WY). As somebody who never participated (partly due to never actually signing up for an account until the playoffs last year), I totally understand why it's more work than justified by the response, but I always loved the loser/KCW portions of the weekly columns and would hate to see it disappear entirely. Moseley/C.Ward/Womack will be a big upgrade over last year's starters. 2. Read more Print length 560 pages Language English Publication date July 8, 2009 Surprisingly . Thats just a penalty for having your tough games early in the season. Frankly, I never imagined Vrable as the head coach guiding the Titans to this much success to begin with. Otherwise, they wouldn't haveme doing it; good lord. In reply to Duly noted! The Rams . The offense for the most part seems ok, but could something be off with your defensive components? 3. The #7 DVOA defense is gonna drop back 6 slots this year? https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/qb/2021, Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. Now they are at 10.6. In reply to More level playing field by dmstorm22. If you buy something from an SB Nation link, Vox Media may earn a commission. Power Rankings Power Rankings; Early 2017 NFL projections: NFC East repeat in Big D? Worcester, MA. Can the Vikings prove Vegas wrong & clinch? by Franchise_Punter. Losing Hightower and Collins should only help the defense. With Watson, we project the Browns as a top-five offense. Los Angeles Chargers: 8-8 (7.9 mean wins; SOS: 14) I can't see that happening again. So anything from from 700 to 1300 DYAR (then scale that to six games) is defensible. The problem isn't just these teams beating up on each other for six games. Detroit Cincinnati Bengals: 9-7 (8.8 mean wins; SOS: 26) Some of it is losing T.Y. Basically, they had whole position groups consisting of third-stringers or street FAs, plus the typical assortment of various injuries throughout the roster. Football Outsiders have released their early predictions for the 2017 NFL season and they have the Texans finishing last in the AFC South with a 6-10 record. I suppose it might include a subjective appreciation of coaching, but it seems incredibly difficult to project such a thing correctly. You are correct that the Bills' championship window should be open for more than just this year, but you never know. Cleveland Browns: 5-11 (5.4 mean wins; SOS: 11). In reply to Rust is hard to project. I can see a world where the Bears and the Jets have a better offensive DVOA than Washington because Fields or Wilson reach their potential but you are correct that it is much more likely that Wentz leads Washington to a better offense than either of those teams. (You can find last year's final ratings here.) Gannon missed all of 1994 and almost all of 1995. There's this general conventional wisdom that the AFC is super difficult this year because of how good the best teams are, but our projections suggest that the opposite is true. 12. For a team that went 8-9 in 2021 and played in a lot of one-score games, that seems like a pretty significant jump. 16. And the Vikings had an above-average defensive DVOA last year on every down/play split except for first-down passes. In reply to Yeah, that was just horribly by Pat. (Obviously, we're projecting probabilities here rather than a clear dichotomy where certain teams are playoff teams and other teams are not.) 3. Ill present a couple of paragraphs from the Vikings chapter of the almanac, one for the offense and one for the defense. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? New England Patriots: 13-3 (13.2 mean wins; strength of schedule: 32) If there's enough interest, perhaps I can do something during my Thursday column this year -- or at least have a running comment thread each week, celebrating the Losers of the world. A team projected to go 7-9 could realistically end up anywhere between 3-13 and 11-5. Thus, Los Angeles has an average losing margin of 9.5 . In reply to Gannon was a backup then by cstoos. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. Last year, the teams at the bottom of our projections all came out at the bottom of the league, but we had Cincinnati 23rd and while they weren't that much higher in DVOA, of course they made it all the way to the Super Bowl. When it comes to clubs like the L.A. Rams, a Thursday night date is downright banana balls. Carolina's projection is pretty simple: a bit of rebound on both sides of the ball combined with an easy schedule. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). 10. I even remember Doctor Z writing a playful article about how he planned to ask Manning after his HOF speech and 2 sb rings(prescient) about why he was so needlessly aggressive on that final drive. Personnel changes aren't the only difference between this updated simulation and the one we did for Football Outsiders Almanac 2022. And since the Football Outsiders database now goes back to 1989, I thought it would be worthwhile to test the predictive power of Football Outsiders' ratings. Should they be as hyped as much as they are? The Vikings had a top-10 offense in both 2019 and 2020. Yeah, no, that's what I meant - as in "oh my god everything's so horrible let's actually give Alex a try." Its the Lions Super Bowl on Sunday- Can the Vikings Upset Expectations? Oakland The Over/Under total for Thursday Night Football hit the board at 45.5 points on Sunday night and quickly shortened to as low as 43 with one-sided play on . Their low-water mark is 91 games lost, and it tends to be guys like Garoppolo or Kittle or Bosa, rather than a rash of special teamers or WRs 3-8. Welcome to the fifth and final installment of our five-post series of questions with the folks from Football Outsiders about the 2022 Minnesota Vikings in celebration of the release of this years version of the Football Outsiders Almanac (available in both digital and print versions). Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. In reply to that one is confusing by RickD. They had a weird defensive decline at the end of the season without any real explanation like an injury. That bodes poorly against a Michigan front seven that's allowed just 3.0 yards per carry this . So in general I just don't get the drop in defense. . Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Plus, a look at schedule strength so far and remaining. sitting tops in seconds per play at Football Outsiders and Top 10 in . 13. The Buffalo Bills top the preliminary Week 10 rankings despite Sunday's loss, while the Minnesota Vikings finally reach the top half of the NFL. Football Outsiders' revolutionary metrics that break down every single play of the NFL season Save 10% & Support the Writers Support Football Outsiders' independent media. The Eagles projection literally prompted me to google "eagles qb" to see if I'd missed something, but nope, still appears to be Jalen Hurts! Includes comprehensive coverage of all 32 NFL teams, analysis of offseason personnel changes, over 500 KUBIAK fantasy football projections, and breakdowns of every team from the six BCS conferences plus the top independent and mid-major college football teams. 3. He was basically a drunken Garoppolo. At the start of a new season, our simulation is very conservative about the average number of wins and losses expected for each team. Will Georgia's Balanced Attack Win Another Championship? Irrelevant' to rookie starting QB: The twists and turns of Brock Purdy's journey to the 49ers, Tiger and Rory vs. Spieth and JT: Top moments from The Match, Brittney Griner's release met with shock, relief from the Phoenix Mercury, 796 goals and counting: The Alex Ovechkin chase to 800 tracker, Scott Van Pelt gives his Winners for Army Navy and NFL Week 14. Plus, how is Minnesota pulling off an 8-1 record? (Guys who racked up the most anti-value!). I know JC Jackson is gone, but such a jump says more than that. In reply to Last year's Ravens were the by dmb. Some things haven't changed: In our first season forecast, no team in the AFC South came out with a winning record. Now, Arizona is fourth but the other seven out of the top eight schedules in the league belong to AFC teams. Rivera's never had an offense that bad before. When you reviewed everything did that pass your sanity test? Editor-in-Chief They could be good or horrible, but I think they're even more dependent on Prescott than Buffalo is on Allen. 3. Our projection system starts with Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) ratings for the past three seasons, although last year's ratings end up about six times as important as either 2014 or 2015. I mentioned it before, different position but still a multi time PB offensive player traded to a different team in conference this century but not exactly due to injury, is Trent Williams. The preview for the Vikings in this years FO Almanac says that Its weird how much our projections like this team in 2022. Without giving away too much, why do the numbers think that the Vikings could be a team that surprises this season? San Francisco. And for the first time since 2003, our 2017 projections also give the Raiders a better than 50-50 shot at a winning record. Brian Fremeau provides [] . Our full statistical database will be made available with DVOA rankings, grades, and more. They should have a top-10 offense again, and a full year with Mario Edwards Jr. across from Khalil Mack should improve the pass rush. Is this a first where projections have an entire division as the worst 4 in their conference, it seems incredibly implausible, In reply to AFCS terribleness by HitchikersPie. Purdue's offensive line is below average, ranking 98th in Football Outsiders' Line Yards metric. by dmb. Theyshould, but the exact same thing was said about Miami/Marino after they lost that SB to the Niners. Los Angeles Chargers 3. We launched Football Outsiders back in 2003. NFL Week 14 December 8, 2022 Subscribe Clinton & Roberts in Podcasts That being said, last season's Cardinals were not a bad team, just an average one held back in part by a terrible special-teams performance that is unlikely to be repeated. Our projections lean a bit more toward the former than the latter, but the Packers are still well ahead of the rest of their division. People who know me know how much I believe in the magic coming out of Baltimore. The return of Earl Thomas should help the Seattle defense rebound from its December implosion, and that makes the Seahawks the favorites in the NFC, once again. See our ethics statement. Football Outsiders has released their early 2016 AFC projections (insider required), and they may have the Ravens finishing in third place, but they do have them returning to the playoffs.. The Rams have been trying to compete with a defense and special-teams orientation for years now, but hiring Wade Phillips could finally make that recipe work. Oakland Raiders: 9-7 (9.0 mean wins; SOS: 15) 1. "Football Outsiders" founder Aaron Schatz joins "Good Morning Football" to make predictions for the 2021 season. Hell, in 32 years of Fouts, Brees, and Rivers, SD never made a SB with them. Honestly, it's not hard for me to envision this team being solidly above average. AFC South's 2nd best DVOA team, and that only by tenths of a win point, is getting the best odds on the whole NFL division-winning board! Is there any variable for coaches? Meanwhile, the Colts continue to experiment with just how much a bad defense can fritter away the prime years of a good quarterback. This is the thing that feeds into DAVE for the first couple games, right? And which of 2016's most disappointing teams look primed for a rebound? In the book, the Bills led the NFL with 10.2 average wins. Last year, we had five teams projected at 10.5 wins or higher. Be sure totune in live throughout the offseason on YouTube to join the conversation! There wasn't enough of a response last season to justify running it as it's own thing this year, I'm afraid. Gain access to premium articles like Derrik Klassen's full game-by-game preview with detailed film and data breakdowns. Although that bring up the Raiderswe're projecting McDaniels to begood? This year's simulation was even more conservative than usual, both in terms of DVOA and wins. Three teams have improved their projected mean DVOA by at least 2.5% since the simulation we ran for the book, and five teams have declined by at least 2.5%. Watson will play six games this year and Cleveland's offensive DVOA projection is 11% higher with Watson at quarterback than Jacoby Brissett. With a couple weeks of training camp in the books league-wide, various outlets are laying out their predictions for the 32 teams. This is the most lopsided of the 10 conference championship games. 2. The Cardinals' offense will aim to surpass the Football Outsiders projections in 2021. All signs are pointing to a down year for Tennessee - well, except for the garbage division(I am so close to picking Jacksonville as the division winner) that if they manage to be OK, I think it will speak volumes for Vrable and his staff. Since 2009, only three teams have done the same thing. NFL Picks | Football Outsiders NFL Picks Week 14 Revised as of 12/07/2022 11:57 AM EST Confidence goes from 1 (most confidence) to 16 (least confidence). I expect to read something about them in tomorrow's article. The decline of parity is reflected in this first round of Football Outsiders' 2017 team projections. They seems to be overrated by DVOA toward the end of last season. I don't have much faith in Lance, but that's a good roster, and they did just fine with Jimmy G the last few years. Somehow swapping out Heinicke and Scherff for Wentz and Norwell equates to an 11 spot drop? In reply to On the other hand, the 49ers by Aaron Brooks G, In reply to Wasn't last year the bad one? Should the Patriots, Steelers and Cowboys all expect to make the playoffs again? 2021 fantasy football projections for more than 500 skill position players based on the KUBIAK forecasting system. Atlanta* Arizona* When considering these numbers, remember that this is not the final, official Football Outsiders forecast for 2017. Thanks to some personnel movement in the preseason, the entire rest of the AFC comes out ahead of the best team of the AFC South (Indianapolis). by Franchise_Punter. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. With normal luck and without so many late comebacks, the 2017 Lions are probably going to have fewer wins, despite improvement on last season's last-place defense. On offense, a lot of the issue is just the likelihood of rebounding to prior performance. Have little fear! Offensive projections also incorporate a separate projection for the starting quarterback done independent of the team. The decline of parity is reflected in this first round of Football Outsiders' 2017 team projections. In the five years since, 2015-2019, the mean DVOA forecast had a correlation with actual wins of .503. Some of that is the fact that Smith has a higher "team-free quarterback projection" and part of it is that teams with poor projected quarterbacks do even worse if those quarterbacks are new to the team. No matter the stat, there's never been a 10-2 team like the Minnesota Vikings. The Rams have been mired in a six-game losing streak. New York Giants They have been top 10 for 3 straight years with terrible injury luck and a change in DC. This will continue to be the worst division in the NFL, but at least Tennessee and Jacksonville seem like teams on the rise. Close wins put the Lions into the playoffs last season, despite ranking just 27th in DVOA. Really sad to hear that by fynsta. The Dallas Cowboys climb into second place in pre-MNF Week 11 DVOA, the Jets tumble from the top 10, and more. Kinlaw is probably a downgrade vs. DJ Jones against the run and an upgrade against the pass. A team that was bad one season is sometimes much better the next season or vice versa. Minnesota's projection is a bit of a surprise, until you realize just how poor the Vikings were in the second half of last season: 24th in offensive DVOA and 19th in defensive DVOA from Week 10 onward. However, I don't think it's too surprising that they have a strong projection, and the highest in their division. And of course that would land them in "solidly below-average" territory, but not among the dregs of the league sincesome teams will underperform the worst projections. What is that defensive projection? 1. The Dolphins' 10-6 record last season was built on an easy schedule, but Miami wasn't a bad team that lucked into a playoff spot, just an average one. PHI is probably the most interesting, LAC over KC. I would assume DVOA includes coaches somehow. are clearly very hard to predict. that projection looks very negative but actually they are 8th best team in NFC! In reply to 1) It's not too late to get by Vincent Verhei. Phillips' scheme will likely have a similar effect in Los Angeles, where the defense was already loaded with talent in the front seven. The secondary might take its lumps, particularly early on, but the level of talent there is higher than what the Vikings had in 2021. Those are the type of forward-looking metrics used by oddsmakers. The Chargers, of course, were the opposite in terms of luck, and they hope a new coaching staff will help prevent so many close losses and blown fourth-quarter leads. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Jacobs is fighting through injury, and playing on a . And GB is right in the middle, but theyre probably the most talented in the league. 15. explaining what we like about Philadelphia in great detail. Includes comprehensive coverage of all 32 NFL teams, analysis of offseason personnel changes, over 500 KUBIAK fantasy football projections, and breakdowns of every team from the five major college football conferences plus the top independent and mid-major college teams. So what am I missing? Would personally really enjoy a more limited loser league if it was still possible, the overall tone of scramble makes very enjoyable reading, In reply to Bits and pieces by HitchikersPie. Kansas City Chiefs: 8-8 (8.1 mean wins; SOS: 4) Breakdowns on the top 50 college football teams and full win-loss projections for all 130 Division I-A (FBS) teams. Lead editor Aaron Schatz is the creator of FootballOutsiders.com and the proprietary NFL statistics within Football Outsiders Almanac, including DVOA, DYAR, Adjusted Line Yards, and the KUBIAK fantasy football projections. Five Good Questions with Football Outsiders: Projections for the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Vikings activate Cameron Dantzler, place Jonathan Bullard on IR. I tend to think that this probably overrates New England's decline though, because pretty much moreso than any other team they're basically always near the top of the league in interceptions. Raiders Predictions. Minnesota Vikings News and Links, 10-11 December 2022, The Daily Norsemans Minnesota Vikings Twitter List, The Complete Minnesota Vikings Draft Pick Database. Dallas Cowboys: 10-6 (9.5 mean wins; SOS: 1) What's up with them going from -12.6 DVOA last season to 2.5% in the preseason projections? This has become something of a trend, and may represent draft strategy backfiring. Rivers, Romo, and Dak never got there. When Aaron Rodgers is on his game, the recipe for the Packers is simple: good team if the defense is bad, great team if the defense is good. Football Outsiders' DVOA Ranks Arizona Cardinals as One of Worst Teams in NFL - Sports Illustrated Arizona Cardinals News, Analysis and More Football Outsiders Ranks Cardinals as One of. Dallas declined on offense because of the injury to Tyron Smith. Let's take a look at those teams, beginning with the four teams that have improved: And the five teams that declined significantly since the book: I know the reason Washington's huge projected drop is because they were all defense, no offense last year (and defense regresseshard) but holy cow that's the one team I can glance at and say "yeah, they'll probably be significantly better than that." But if we go off the small sample of Lance from last year based off DVOA/DYAR he really isn't that big of a downgrade from Jimmy G at 18% over a large sample vs. 20% for Lance over about 3 games of play time. Chicago Buffalo still #1 despite losing Punt Rapist. On a lighter note, if you combined the projected 10th and 11th teams, you have a team that would put a mincin on anyone. 3) The short answer is: the Eagles added the NFL's best YAC receiver over the last few years in A.J. So has Jacksonville, and the Jaguars project to have a top-10 defense, but there's no reason to expect the offense to get any better. 5. In reply to I know the reason Washington by Pat. New Orleans got rid of its best wide receiver in Brandin Cooks. The Bills are projected in the top five for offense, defense, and special teams in these new projections, updated from the season forecasts in Football Outsiders Almanac 2022. One of those things people will forget about but will blame every incompletion on it, even if it's a drop. 3. San Francisco is the opposite of the New York Jets, where the decline in the offensive projection is due to offensive line changes and you can quibble with that if you would like. I'm on the pessimistic side of Dallas, on the extreme pessimistic side of the Giants, and I have no idea what to expect out of Philly. How much different remains to be seen, but I think were all expecting something a bit more explosive than what we were used to seeing at the tail end of the Zimmer era. Montana missed essentially all of 1991 and 1992. He wrote the chapter on the Vikings for this years Almanac, so he took the time to answer the five queries I posed for this years squad. It took him a while to get going again and it's likely he got much better coaching than Watson will, In reply to I think Michael Vick is a by Chuckc. It may seem like our simulation predicts half the league to be near .500, but we know that won't happen. Terms at draftkings.com/sportsbook. After two years being batted away by the Patriots, the Colts finally looked like the team of destiny. I by KnotMe. If you're not familiar, FO uses DVOA as its base measure of team strength. Morocco see off Ronaldo, Portugal; Kane heartbreak as England fall to France, In his likely World Cup finale, Ronaldo's calm, subdued effort not enough for Portugal, From 'Mr. Ten Hag: The 'tactically brilliant' coach who became a winner at Ajax. The bottom dozen teams in the league by DVOA projection consist of the entire AFC South and eight NFC teams. by BigRichie. Plus, introducing game variance! Their likelihood of losing someone significant due to felony went down. This feels like the kind of team Jeff Fisher dreams about every night. But dramatic, year-to-year changes actually happen less often now than they used to. Last year's Ravens were the most-injured team by Adjusted Games Lost that FO has tracked, going back to 2001. A few of them look strange to us." And although it only counts for expected wins and not DVOA, playing a last-place schedule should also benefit the Ravens. Cunningham missed all of 1996 and most of 1997. New York Jets: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins; SOS: 25). (Denver was going to be a projected playoff team, but the Raiders have passed them slightly in this new simulation.) They're hoping there's alotta $$$ to be mined from the DFS players. May be, and for the good of the site I'm hoping there is, too. 1 teams on both offense and defense. What I meant was that they werebuiltas all defense, no offense, and while you can't expect things to revert back to '20 even with Young returning because of the whole defensive regression thing (super defenses aren't real, and it's not like Young was having a great year anyway), ending up as the worst offense in the league in '20 took them thinking one-legged Alex Smith was a good option. The point of this for Bills fans is to remember the following: It may feel like you have to win NOW. Baltimore has brought in talent on defense in free agency, but the Ravens have lost a lot, as well, with the trade of Timmy Jernigan and the surprising retirement of Zachary Orr. 9. .and the summarizing paragraph, which is damn near perfect, I think. Odds & lines subject to change. 2. Bills vs. Patriots predictions Patriots +3.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook Sharp money has continuously hit this line since the opener, as the Patriots have dropped from 5.5-point underdogs to 3.5 . Like, the decision to go to Smith actually made sense, which is why it was such a ridiculously bad offense. That said, when a team looks to be improved at edge rusher, safety, cornerback, and perhaps linebacker, at least stylistically, then its not a stretch to see how the influx of talent outweighs the expected growing pains of a new coaching staff. Denver Broncos: 6-10 (6.0 mean wins; SOS: 6). A composite of popular computer formula rankings had Alabama third and TCU eighth. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. Eleven of the 12 teams that would make the playoffs based on mean projections are teams that made the playoffs in one of the past two seasons. Kansas City* Indianapolis has mustered 16 and 17 points vs. quality defenses in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia the past two games. In general, our forecast each year will "project" the playoffs to look very similar to the playoffs from the year before. Preseason football, but real football nonetheless. 3. FEI, used by Football Outsiders, had Alabama fifth. The Bengals manhandled the Ravens late in the season. I mean, New England's defense is pretty much like all turnovers, and losing the guy who had the most on the team for the past two years you might expect it to have an outsized effect. The odds of getting the No. Gannon was a backup then. You add it all up and the Colts have a roster destined to conquer the might middle of the NFL. 3. The one that does not make sense is the drop on the defense rating. But I guess you take away Landry from a defense that was bad a year ago + now you've lost AJ Brown and I suppose maybe its true. NFL Week 1 - The Buffalo Bills are clear favorites in 2022 according to our DVOA projections and season simulation. Minnesota On top of that, we also project the Patriots with the easiest schedule in the NFL for 2017. I think Michael Vick is a good close comparison. Save 10% & Support the Writers Support Football Outsiders' independent media. Yet they are projected to fall from 10th to 27th. Houston What do the projections look like if you take each team's modal record, rather than their mean record? Mercifully, I didn't have to wait long to savor the opposite feeling. In reply to Montana missed essentially by Aaron Brooks G. The defensive projection I'd like to hear more about is Miami's. "Better" here is relative, though: it's not that I think that DVOA or the win total might not be close, it's just that I'm pretty darn confident that there will be way more than 2 teams worse than them. ), then again, we still have Seattle. Ian O'Connor and Vince Verhei are to review the most impactful games and coaching decisions from the past weekend of football. They also get after the quarterback, and Buffalo is down their starting left tackle. I'm really interested to see how the Patriots defense does this year, though: letting Jackson go still seems like one of the biggest mistakes New England's made inyears. So I was catching up on some old blog-reading and came across this excellent post by Brian Burke, Pre-Season Predictions Are Still Worthless, showing that the Football Outsiders pre-season predictions are about as accurate as picking 8-8 for every team would be, and that a simple regression based on one variable 6 wins plus 1/4 of the previous season's wins is significantly more accurate What are the odds that this unit is still bottom 3 against deep balls? Pittsburgh Will Berhalter be USA manager at 2026 World Cup? September 10, 2021 7:15 am ET. Welcome to the Football Outsiders Coach Rankings show for NFL Week 13! Seattle Seahawks: 11-5 (11.2 mean wins; SOS: 21) In reply to The defensive projection I'd by Noahrk. (It also helps to play San Francisco instead of one of the other three NFC West teams.) Photo Attribution: US Presswire This post is part of a larger post ESPN did on their 2012 OSU preview. 4. The stars are all aligned and its now or never. . Baltimore is the No. It says that in the article, right? Ryan's personal projection isn't great, but it isn't terrible. Things change rapidly in the NFL. We're forecasting decline for many of their out-of-division opponents, including Atlanta, Denver and Kansas City. I think this year will be a nice test for the coaching staff. Most notably, Football Outsiders' models have been down on the Bucs all year. Overall, the average of the range of projections comes out with a top-10 offense and special teams combined with an average defense and an easy schedule (25th). Maybe one day I'll try fantasy, just to see what the hoopla is all about no, I won't. But his first three *starts* back were with a passer rating of 101.9+and remember this was 2010. I want to thank Derrik Klassen and Aaron Schatz for taking the time to answer my questions about the 2022 Vikings and the projections that Football Outsiders has for them for the upcoming season. Tim Patrick has been really good the last couple years! 6. That holds true in our 2017 projection. Armstead is also starting the year at DT which is significant. NFL Week 1 - The Buffalo Bills are clear favorites in 2022 according to our DVOA projections and season simulation. Yet still ended up AP OROTY-3. However, I do want to express appreciation for the tradition it's been; over the years, I've thoroughly enjoyed some of the inspired team names, as well as the content it's generated in Scramble. In reply to Best futures NFL bet ever! Football Outsiders is a data-driven football site that doesn't adhere to typical narratives about teams. 1 in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders . We had him as a perfectly average passer and also the best running QB in the league. For if gaining Wilson is not seen as an upgrade, then why is losing him such a catastrophic loss?

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